When all is said and done, bridge is essentially a game of probabilities. You make a certain bid because you think it has a better chance to succeed than any other bid. You make a certain play because you think it is better, percentagewise, than any other play.

But probability, by definition, is not a certainty. All you can do in bridge is rely on the percentages and hope for the best. You might be wrong in a particular case, but in the long run you’ll be right more often than not.

All of which leads us to the play of today’s hand, which is strictly a matter of percentages. Let’s say you win the spade lead with the king and play the king of hearts. West takes the ace and returns a spade, which you win with the ace as East follows with a second spade.

There are now two ways to proceed. You can cross to the king of diamonds and take a club finesse. If the jack wins, you have nine tricks. This approach offers about a 50-50 chance to make the contract. (In the actual deal, though, this line of play would fail.)

The alternate approach is to play the A-K-J of clubs. This will succeed if the clubs are divided 3-3 or if either the queen or ten falls as the A-K are led. The diamond king provides the entry to dummy if the nine of clubs becomes a trick.

The second approach is significantly better. The clubs will break 3-3 about 36% of the time, and a singleton or doubleton queen or ten will occur in approximately one out of every three deals.

The combined chance of the clubs breaking 3-3 or being otherwise favorably divided comes to about 70%. Playing the A-K-J of clubs thus has a much better chance of succeeding and is therefore the superior line of play.

Tomorrow: Just a little white lie.