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New Democratic congressional map for Ohio goes nowhere fast

You’ve got to give Democratic state legislators a little credit for their quixotic congressional redistricting map proposal.

At least they offered something even though the map was never going to go anywhere.

The Democratic redrawing of lines would take the current map that favors Republicans 10-5, though two of the Democratic districts are very much tossups, and make it an 8-7 map in favor of the GOP.

The Democrats introduced the map Tuesday. By Wednesday, the House Rules Committee, controlled by Republicans, didn’t even bother to refer the bill to a committee. Not that it would have received even a hearing to permit sponsors to deliver testimony, but Republicans didn’t hide their disdain for the proposal.

Republican leaders criticized Democrats, who are the minority in the Legislature, for drawing the congressional map in secret without GOP input.

House Speaker Matt Huffman, R-Lima, told reporters on Wednesday that Democrats should have first spoken with Republicans to collaborate and while he hasn’t seen their map, he had no issue calling it “gerrymandering.”

This was rich because Republicans repeatedly drew state legislative and congressional maps behind closed doors without Democratic input and then typically gave the minority party a day or less to review them.

Based on results in partisan statewide elections, Democrats say the 8-7 map reflects the electorate — and they have a point. But the logistics of drawing maps to reflect that doesn’t work because Democrats are concentrated in Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati and there are limits on carving up counties.

Also, Republicans are working hard to pick up at least those two districts that swing every so slightly Democratic and possibly another one. For Republicans, they’ll ideally draw a 13-2 map in their favor, but will settle for 12-3 — and there’s very little Democrats can do to stop it.

The Democratic map created at least three very competitive districts that slightly favored its party and three lesser competitive ones with two for Republicans and one for Democrats.

One of those lesser competitive Republican districts would be the 14th, currently represented by Dave Joyce, R-Bainbridge. The district would favor Republicans by 11% based on voting trends.

The Democratic plan would keep Trumbull, Ashtabula, Lake and Geauga in the district and replace nearly all of Portage County with parts of Mahoning. Those parts of Mahoning would include Youngstown, Austintown, Campbell, Struthers, Canfield and Boardman.

While Youngstown, Austintown, Campbell and Struthers used to be reliable Democratic communities, except for Youngstown, that isn’t the case anymore with statewide elections. Still, Democrats would have a little bit of a better chance in this district compared to the current one with Portage.

The rest of Mahoning County would go into a very safe Republican district that largely goes south.

Of course, the Democratic map is a nonstarter, but it’s concerning on a local level that it splits Mahoning in half in order to essentially create a more competitive 14th District.

The idea of putting Mahoning and Trumbull in a single congressional district with Columbiana and other counties is still on the table.

Democrats introduced their congressional map a few weeks before the first deadline of Sept. 30 to pass maps. To even refer to Sept. 30 as a deadline is kind of silly because Republican legislators have no intention of approving a map by then. The state Legislature doesn’t even resume formal session until Oct. 1.

To get a congressional map approved by Sept. 30, at least three-fifths of the Legislature has to support the map as well as — and here’s the kicker — at least half of the Democrats.

That’s not going to happen.

Under a 2018 constitutional amendment that was supposed to lead to fairer state legislative and congressional maps, drawing congressional lines next goes to the Ohio Redistricting Commission, which consists of five Republicans and two Democrats. Oct. 31 is the deadline for the commission to approve the map.

The commission would need Democratic support in order for the map to be in place until the 2032 election. Without Democratic support, the map would be good until the 2030 election.

Ohio finds itself redrawing congressional lines this year because the 2022 map approved by the commission didn’t have any support from Democratic members so it was in effect for only four years. Had Democrats signed off on the map in 2022 — and in hindsight, they probably wish they had — the existing congressional lines would be in effect for 10 years – until the 2032 election.

If the commission can’t resolve the congressional map issue, it goes back to the Legislature. A simple majority is needed to pass a four-year map by Nov. 30, the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

No one is going to want to wait until that particular time of the year to pass a map.

Either through the commission or the state Legislature the second time around, Republicans will get the 12-3 or 13-2 map they desire, and the Republican-dominated Ohio Supreme Court will rule it constitutional.

Democrats and their allies can take the matter to the federal courts. But by the time a decision is rendered, it would have no impact on next year’s congressional election.

NOTE: I will be on vacation so there won’t be a column next week.

David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.

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