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Fed minutes: Most officials worried about inflation moving higher

WASHINGTON — Most Federal Reserve officials said last month that the threat of higher inflation was a greater concern than the potential for job losses, leading the central bank to keep its key rate unchanged.

According to the minutes of the July 29-30 meeting, released Wednesday, members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee “assessed that the effects of higher tariffs had become more apparent in the prices of some goods but that their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remained to be seen.”

The minutes underscored the reluctance among the majority of the Fed’s 19 policymakers to reduce the central bank’s short-term interest rate until they get a clearer sense of the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on inflation. So far inflation has crept up in the past couple of months but hasn’t risen as much as many economists feared when Trump unveiled some of his duties.

The policymakers appeared to spend a substantial amount of time discussing the tariffs, and they said they expected inflation to increase in the coming months as a result. But they also “judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs.”

Last month’s meeting occurred two days before the government issued a disappointing jobs report for July, which showed that hiring was weak last month and far fewer jobs were added in May and June than originally estimated. Wall Street investors increased their bets that the Fed would cut rates at its next meeting Sept. 16-17 after that report was released, according to futures pricing.

The Fed left its key interest rate unchanged last month at about 4.3%, though two members of its governing board dissented in favor of a rate cut. Both dissenters — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — were appointed to the board during Trump’s first term.

At a news conference after the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that it might take significant additional time for the Fed to determine whether Trump’s sweeping tariffs are boosting inflation.

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