Bridge is basically a game of probabilities. Whenever you’re faced with a choice as to whether to make this or that bid, or this or that play, you try to choose the one that is likely to work out best in the long run.

Consider this deal where Raymond Chow, Hong Kong movie magnate and former president of the Far East Bridge Federation, got to six hearts doubled on the sequence shown. West’s opening club bid was artificial, showing at least 17 high-card points, and North’s five-notrump bid asked South to bid either six hearts or six diamonds.

West led the king of clubs against six hearts and shifted to the ace of spades. Chow ruffed and quickly concluded that West, having bid for 11 tricks all by himself, very likely had at most two red-suit cards.

So, acting on the high probability that East had both missing red jacks, Chow ruffed a club in dummy at trick three, led a heart at trick four and finessed the ten!

When the ten held, Chow ruffed another club in dummy, returned a low diamond and again finessed the ten! When this likewise succeeded, Chow was home free. He cashed the A-K-Q of trump, then the Q-K-A of diamonds, and scored his 12th trick with dummy’s nine of diamonds.

West’s magnificent hand thus wound up costing him the princely sum of 1,210 points. It also taught him that you don’t take movie moguls or presidents of bridge federations too lightly.

Tomorrow: There’s only one right play.