Penguins control their own destiny
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YOUNGSTOWN -- Entering the final week of the regular season, the circumstances are relatively simple for the Youngstown State men: Win and you're in.
In the top four, anyhow, which is a goal coach Jerrod Calhoun has spoken on since the league slate got underway. That brings a first-round bye in the Horizon League Tournament and a home quarterfinal game.
With two games to go, the Penguins (18-11, 12-7) visit two of the very teams they're in position to pass up this weekend, as they travel to Wright State (16-13, 13-7) on Thursday and Northern Kentucky (16-11, 12-6) on Sunday. That comes courtesy of Detroit Mercy, which topped both NKU and WSU at home last week to draw them within reach of the Penguins.
NKU is third in the league right now with a win percentage of .667, while WSU is fourth at .650. Oakland is in front of YSU in fifth at 18-10 overall and 11-6 in league play (a percentage of .647), but takes on first-place Cleveland State (19-6, 15-4, .789) and second-place Purdue Fort Wayne (18-10, 13-6, .684) this week.
Youngstown State can knock NKU and WSU out of the top four and slide in regardless of how the Golden Grizzlies fare in those contests, but a pair of Oakland losses certainly wouldn't hurt YSU's case here.
As you can tell, there are a lot of different scenarios at play here. In an ideal world, YSU can finish as high as third if Oakland gets swept and YSU wins both its contests this weekend.
The Penguins also could get help from Robert Morris if they drop either game this weekend, as the Colonials are making the same trip as YSU's travel partner. RMU is skidding since handing Youngstown State a loss last week, though, having lost back-to-back games, including one against lowly IUPUI.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
The nice thing for the Penguins is their worst-case scenario -- getting swept this weekend while Detroit Mercy wins against CSU and PFW -- seems unlikely. If that happened, the Penguins would drop to seventh in the league standings, just one spot.
The other saving grace is that wouldn't make a ton of difference from a situation where YSU were fifth or sixth, either. Teams five through eight in the standings will host first-round games in the Horizon League Tournament, so YSU is at least guaranteed a game at Beeghly in the first round before any potential road contest in the quarterfinals.
WOMEN'S
The YSU women's situation is a bit more cut and dry -- the winner of Thursday's game between the Penguins and IUPUI is likely your regular season conference champion.
That comes thanks to Milwaukee's 50-48 upset of Green Bay on Monday, which dropped the Phoenix to 17-6 overall and 13-4 in league play. That gives UWGB a conference percentage of .765 as of now. Green Bay had won 10 straight entering that game.
YSU (23-4, 17-3, .850) is in the driver's seat, as it has a one-game advantage on the Jaguars. After IUPUI (19-6, 16-4, .800), Youngstown State concludes its season at league bottomfeeder UIC (2-22, 1-18, .053). In their first matchup in mid-January, IUPUI rallied late to top YSU 76-68 in overtime.
Should the Penguins fall at IUPUI, they'll likely finish second, barring what would be both a disastrous and stunning loss to UIC.
Other women's games to watch
There are some intriguing matchups this week. Seventh-place Oakland takes on fifth-place Northern Kentucky on Thursday, while No. 6 Milwaukee faces No. 4 Cleveland State that night. On Saturday, Green Bay battles Cleveland State. CSU could move into third should it take out both Milwaukee and Green Bay this week.
All games will be on ESPN+.
jwhetzel@tribtoday.com