As has been the case for years, turnout for this spring’s primary is expected to be poor.

It should be between 23% and 25% in Mahoning County, according to Tom McCabe, director of its board of elections.

Stephanie Penrose, his counterpart in Trumbull County, expects turnout to be around 25% in her county.

The predictions are in line with what the two counties have seen in the past few years.

In the May 2022 primary, when the governor’s seat was on the ballot, turnout in Mahoning was 23.24% and 25.83% in Trumbull.

In the 2018 primary, which had contested governor’s primaries for both parties, turnout wasn’t much different. It was 24.81% in Mahoning and 24.98% in Trumbull.

If anything, McCabe and Penrose may be too optimistic. The predictions were done before early voting started Tuesday. So far, early in-person voting has been slow.

Low projections come as no surprise as turnout during primaries hasn’t approached the relatively high percentages the two counties reached in the 2016 presidential primary of 44.87% in Mahoning and 44.55% in Trumbull.

That was largely caused by the last stand of the presidential campaign of John Kasich, then Ohio governor, who won his state — but lost in Mahoning and Trumbull — against Donald Trump, the clear front-runner in the Republican primary who had won nearly every other state. Had Kasich lost Ohio, his presidential bid would have ended. Instead, he lasted less than two more months before quitting the race.

On the Democratic side of the presidential primary, Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders in the Ohio primary — winning both Mahoning and Trumbull — with Sanders waiting three more months to get out of the race.

There isn’t anything close to that on this year’s May 5 primary ballot.

This is a statewide primary, but nothing is generating excitement for either party.

Amy Acton is the only Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Sherrod Brown is running against a lightly regarded opponent for the U.S. Senate. Democrats running for auditor, treasurer and two Ohio Supreme Court seats are unopposed while contests for the party’s nomination for attorney general and secretary of state aren’t attracting interest from voters.

Vivek Ramaswamy is facing two opponents in the Republican primary for governor, but it would be a huge surprise if that race is competitive. There’s Republican contests for secretary of state, treasurer and for one of the Supreme Court races, but none are generating much excitement from GOP voters.

Besides two congressional primaries, the only other contested Democratic race in Mahoning is for the 58th Ohio House District nomination. That state House District takes in slightly more than half of the county.

Republicans in Mahoning have several contested primaries for those same two congressional seats, county commissioner, state central committeewoman and a number of judicial seats.

In Trumbull County, Democrats can vote in a congressional primary and for state central committeeman. There are six contested Republican races in Trumbull.

Both counties also have levies on the ballot, including the renewal of a Mahoning County sales tax for roads and bridges that raises about $10 million annually.

But what is often forgotten or ignored is most people aren’t affiliated with a political party so the contested races — as well as those with only one candidate — will compel very few people who are independents to decide to vote in the primary election.

They will wait until each party nominates their candidates and decide in the general election. Of course, turnout in nonpresidential years is much lower than when people get to vote for president.

I’m among a very small group of people who pull issues-only ballots during primaries.

How small? In the March 2024 primary, I was among 780 people in Mahoning County to vote that way.

There’s also a big change with those who vote by mail with this election.

Ballots must arrive at county boards of elections no later than 7:30 p.m. May 5, when polls close.

Ohio has come a long way in a short period of time.

As recently as the 2022 general election, voters had until 10 days after polls closed to get their ballots to boards of elections by mail as long as it was postmarked by the day before the election.

That changed with the 2023 primary to four days after the primary.

The new rule of no later than the time polls close starts May 5.

David Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.