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David Skolnick

Expect solid election turnout

4 min read
David Skolnick

There is considerable enthusiasm among Ohio voters for this general election with the hotly contested race for the U.S. Senate seat leading the way.

Boards of elections directors in Mahoning and Trumbull counties say turnout should be as strong as -- or possibly better than -- the 2018 general election, the last time statewide executive branch candidates were on the ballot.

Tom McCabe, Mahoning's director, expects 54 percent turnout for this election. It was 54.72 percent in 2018.

Stephanie Penrose, Trumbull's director, said turnout should be about 55 percent. It was 53.84 percent in 2018.

What's impressive about this year's expectations is all of the executive branch candidates are running for re-election. Also, for the most part, Democratic challengers are unknown and won't be able to compete financially against the Republican incumbents.

That was the case in 2014 and turnout was considerably less than in 2018. In Mahoning, it was 41.51 percent and Trumbull's was 40.81 percent.

The difference primarily is triggered by the competitive Senate race between Democrat Tim Ryan, a 10-term congressman from Howland, and Republican J.D. Vance, author of "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis" and venture capitalist.

The amount of money spent on that race is considerably more than all other statewide contests in Ohio combined.

Also, it's a close race with most polls showing a statistical tie between the two candidates even though Republicans are expected to win all of the executive branch races.

Another possible reason for increased turnout this year is the three races for seats on the Ohio Supreme Court, including chief justice. Republicans currently control the court 4-3.

With the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the longstanding abortion ruling, there is renewed interest in state Supreme Court races as those justices could determine the constitutionality of restrictions state officials place on abortions.

During interviews that reporter Chris McBride and I conducted with those who went to the Trumbull and Mahoning early voting centers Wednesday, the first day of early in-person voting, the Senate race and abortion were two of the major reasons given by people for showing up to cast ballots.

There were no concerns raised by people we talked to about early voting despite former President Donald Trump calling for all voting to occur on Election Day in person using paper ballots.

Voters I spoke to said they trust early voting -- with a couple saying they believed their vote would definitely count using the method while questioning if that would be the case if they went to their polling locations on Nov. 8.

Early voting in person in Ohio is easy, and eliminates any concern about the possibility of long lines at their polling locations on Election Day.

As of Wednesday, absentee ballot applications received in Ohio were 4.4 percent greater than the 2018 general election on the first day of early voting that year, according to the secretary of state's office.

Ohioans had requested 812,200 absentee ballots as of Wednesday. In comparison, the state had received 777,685 absentee requests in 2018 on the first day of early voting. That number for 2014 was 657,154.

Trumbull had the second largest increase by total number of requests among the state's 88 counties, which is impressive considering it is the 15th-most populous county in Ohio.

The 3,836 requests in Trumbull County was second only to the 6,631 in Summit, the state's fourth-populous county, which has more than two-and-a-half times the

number of people as Trumbull. Trumbull had a 25 percent increase in absentee requests compared with 2018.

Mahoning had 1,023 more requests for absentee ballots this year than in 2018, a 6 percent increase from four years ago.

Frank LaRose, secretary of state, said: "This level of absentee ballot utilization for an election like this one is a strong indicator that Ohioans continue to have confidence in the security of our mail-in ballot and for good reason: there is no better system for security and convenience than ours."

Skolnick covers politics for the Tribune Chronicle and The Vindicator.

dskolnick@tribtoday.com

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