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LIBERTY -- The Liberty Board of Education learned that the district's state funding will remain "pretty consistent" unless one or two variables change over the next few years, Treasurer Amber Shaeffer said.
The board approved the district's five-year forecast, a document given to board members ahead of time, at last week's meeting.
According to the financial summary portion of the forecast, expenditures are expected to exceed revenue, resulting in a shortfall in the final year of the forecast period.
The district's average annual revenue growth, which stood at 0.52% from 2022 to 2026, is expected to drop to 0.08% annually through 2031.
The forecast notes that real estate property taxes represent the biggest shift in revenue trends, with annual collections projected to average $632,552 less per year than historical levels.
Real estate property tax revenue accounts for 52.96% of total district general fund revenue, the forecast states, with public utility personal property tax making up 3.28% and unrestricted state aid accounting for 25.47%.
The unrestricted state aid is set to linger around $4.1 million from 2026 to 2028, dipping to $3.8 million in 2031 -- following district-educated enrollment trends, with enrollment expected to be around 748 students that year.
Under Ohio's Fair School Funding Plan, state foundation dollars are calculated using a formula based on student enrollment, local property values, and median resident income, but the district is protected by a state funding guarantee tied to fiscal year 2021 levels.
"We are subject to the guarantee, which means that our state funding per student will not be less than our base year back in 2021," Shaeffer said. "No matter what our enrollment is, that will remain pretty consistent for the next couple (of) years, until we either see an increase in enrollment or the state funding calculation changes."
Shaeffer noted that the guarantee cushions the impact of lower incoming classes, such as the kindergarteners.
"This year, that lower enrollment does not impact us," Shaeffer said. "If that funding formula changes, sure, I imagine it could, but for at least the next couple years, anticipating not a huge growth in enrollment, we'll be able to stay on that guarantee."
Shaeffer said it would take 200 to 300 students enrolling to get the district off the guarantee.
Restricted state aid revenue makes up 4.92% of the district's general fund revenue -- state-per-pupil funds received through the State Foundation Program or other allocations restricted for specific purposes.
It's expected to go from $719,489 in 2026 to $1,116,322 in 2031.
The forecast states that state reimbursement of property tax credit revenue accounts for 6.80% of the general fund, which includes reimbursements from the state for local taxpayer credits or reductions.
"In fiscal year 2027, approximately 11.4% (of) local residential property taxes will be reimbursed by the state in the form of rollback credits and approximately 3.8% will be reimbursed in the form of qualifying homestead exemption credits," the forecast notes.
Other revenue, which includes tuition received by the district for non-resident students educated by the district and interest income and payments in lieu of taxes, accounts for 5.96%, and the district is projected to lose $15,871 through the 2031 fiscal year -- compared to the historical average change of $253,669.