There is obviously a big difference between a bidding sequence that goes 1 [S]-1 NT-3 [S], and one that goes 1 [S]-1 NT-4 [S].

The one-trump response indicates six to 10 points. Therefore, if opener rebids three spades, he is asking responder to continue bidding if he is in the upper half of the range for his notrump bid, and to pass if he is not.

Expressed pointwise, responder is being urged to bid on with eight, nine or 10 points, and to pass with six or seven. The three-spade bid is thus an invitation — not a command –to responder to bid again.

A four-spade bid is made by opener when he feels he will have a good chance for game even if responder has only six or seven points. Today’s South hand, for example, is so promising for game that South should not risk being dropped at three spades.

Declarer makes the contract if he chooses the right finesse to take after his only entry to dummy is knocked out on the opening lead. If he finesses the queen of clubs, he makes the contract; if he takes the trump finesse, he goes down against best defense.

Granting that either finesse has a 50% chance of winning, the club finesse is clearly the better play. This is not because it succeeds in the actual deal, but because there is a better chance for the contract if the club finesse wins than if the spade finesse wins.

For practical purposes, the hand is over if the club finesse wins. But if South tries the trump finesse instead, he will still have to lose a trump trick if East was dealt three or more spades including the king.

Because a successful club finesse will make the contract about half the time, while a successful trump finesse won’t, it is the correct play at trick two. It is the percentage play.

Tomorrow: A slender reed to lean on.

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