Though Democrat Tim Ryan has not pulled the trigger on a gubernatorial bid, all signs point to the former 20-year Mahoning Valley congressman running for the seat.

The announcement could come next week or Ryan could wait until early December. Feb. 4, 2026, is the filing deadline for the May 5 primary.

During a recent text exchange, Dennis Willard, Ryan’s spokesman, wrote: “He has not made a decision. He has asked his team to prepare to launch a campaign.”

In my response to asking if Ryan is getting close to a decision, Willard wrote: “The fact that he has asked us to prepare to run a campaign indicates he is getting closer to a decision.”

I then asked what the preparations entail. Willard responded: “Everything we would need to stand up a campaign from identifying key personnel to manage, raise money, communications and everything in between. Tim told us the people of Ohio deserve bold leadership and someone who will fight for them so be ready to go.”

Ryan is personally making calls to line up support for his campaign, sources say.

When it became known in mid-August that Democrat Sherrod Brown was going to announce he was running for a U.S. Senate position, Willard said that decision “renewed and heightened Tim Ryan’s interest in running for governor.”

Ryan’s potential bid for governor essentially ended when it looked like Brown, a former three-term senator and the most-recognizable name in Ohio Democratic politics, was seriously considering the position. Instead, Brown chose to run for the Senate.

After that, Ryan put himself on a self-imposed Sept. 30 deadline to decide. On Sept. 30, Willard said Ryan was “going to take a few additional days to make his decision.”

Those “few additional days” are at 45 and counting.

What’s holding up Ryan’s decision?

Willard said Ryan “is considering the enormity of how this election will impact our great state” and he “believes he is the strongest candidate to beat Vivek” Ramaswamy, the presumptive Republican governor candidate.

But there’s more to it than that.

Since Ryan left Congress at the end of 2022, after losing a Senate race to Republican JD Vance by 6.1%, he has made a significant amount of money primarily advocating for the natural gas industry and cryptocurrency. He’ll have to give up those lucrative positions if he runs for governor with no guarantee those groups will take him back should he lose.

If Ryan is going to run a transparent race, he is going to be expected to provide a list of clients he’s represented and what they paid him, when did he stop representing them, and did he receive any lump-sum payments, and did he ever speak to former members of Congress on behalf of his clients.

Also, there is the sore subject of his advocacy for cryptocurrency, an industry that spent $40 million in last year’s Senate race against Brown and to help Republican Bernie Moreno, who won that election.

Ryan’s federal leadership political action committee, Workers First PAC, recently sent emails on behalf of his We the People 250 Action Fund — a “dark money” political organization Ryan created in July 2023 — asking people to donate to food banks during the federal shutdown.

That can be seen as a way to rebuild and grow Ryan’s donor list from his 2022 campaign.

Workers First has to file reports with the Federal Election Commission two times a year. The most recent report, filed July 31, shows $39,882 transferred to We the People and $5,600 to CELCO, a Fairfax, Virginia, company, that manages email donor lists for nonprofits.

We the People is a 501(c)(4) organization under the federal tax code that can engage in an unlimited amount of lobbying and political campaigning on behalf of or in opposition to candidates as long as it isn’t the primary activity, according to the IRS. These organizations don’t have to publicly disclose their donors.

DEMOCRAT ALREADY

IN THE RACE

While Ryan has yet to announce his candidacy for governor, Democrat Amy Acton, who rose to prominence during the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic as the state’s health director, declared for the seat back in January.

Acton, a Youngstown native, has landed a number of endorsements, including 12 state representatives, six of the Democratic Party’s nine state senators, and some Valley elected officials and ex-legislators who were once Ryan backers.

Brown likely isn’t going to endorse though he is close to Acton, and Brown’s wife, Connie Schultz, is among those publicly supporting her.

Organized labor, which plays a huge role in Democratic politics, hasn’t weighed in as it waits for Ryan’s expected entry in the race.

Ramaswamy is very wealthy and between his campaign and a super PAC backing him,

$26.7 million was raised in

just the first six months of this year.

In a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat as governor since 2006, you’d think between that fact and Ramaswamy’s huge financial advantage that this wouldn’t be a competitive race.

Perhaps it isn’t.

But a recent poll by the Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network shows Ramaswamy ahead of Action 50%-47% and Ryan 49%-47%. The web-based poll of 800 registered Ohioans, conducted from Oct. 2 to 14, has a 4.5% plus/minus margin of error meaning there could be as much as a 9% swing from the actual results.

The poll shows Acton leading Ryan 50%-41% among 377 Democratic primary voters. With fewer people polled, the margin of error must be even larger than that of the full poll.

A poll by Hart Research on behalf of the Ohio Federation of Teachers, a labor organization that backs Democrats, shows Acton ahead of Ramaswamy 46%-45% with a 3.5% plus / minus margin of error. The poll of 800 likely Ohio voters conducted from Sept. 19 to 22 mixed live telephone interviews and text-to-web online interviews.

Ryan wasn’t included in the poll.

Both the polls show that about a year before the election, the governor’s race isn’t a runaway for Ramaswamy, which almost certainly raises Ryan’s interest in it.

A Democratic primary between Acton and Ryan would hurt the eventual winner as it would require both to spend money that would better be used against Ramaswamy. Also, heated primaries always result in bitter feelings and rarely help the winner.

Ryan has a lot of political experience while Acton has none. As we have seen in recent years in Ohio with President Donald Trump, Vance, Moreno and now with Ramaswamy and Acton running, voters can be attracted to political outsiders.

David Skolnick covers politics for The Vindicator and the Tribune Chronicle.