Submitted graphic This map shows the latest proposal by the Ohio Redistricting Commission to redraw congressional districts in Ohio. This version splits Trumbull and Mahoning counties into separate districts. An earlier proposal that was tossed out in January would have put the two counties into the same district.

A new Republican-proposed congressional map that favors that political party 10-3 — with two tossups that lean Democratic — puts Mahoning and Trumbull counties in separate districts.

A vote by the Ohio Redistricting Commission is expected today on the map, which was unveiled at Tuesday’s meeting.

The two Democratic commission members — Ohio House Minority Leader Allison Russo, D-Upper Arlington, and state Sen. Vernon Sykes, D-Akron — objected to the map Tuesday, saying it unfairly favors Republicans and doesn’t match partisan statewide voting trends during the past decade.

The Ohio Supreme Court on Jan. 14 threw out a 12-3 Republican map, approved by Republicans in the state Legislature, because of the reasons raised Tuesday by Russo and Sykes.

Those voting trends favor Republicans 54-46, which would be an 8-7 advantage for GOP members in a U.S. House of Representatives map.

Currently, Republicans control 12 of the state’s 16 U.S. House districts. Ohio is losing a district in this election because the state’s population didn’t grow as fast as the rest of the country’s.

A 2018 state constitutional amendment, overwhelmingly supported by voters, changed how congressional maps are drawn.

Regardless of today’s commission vote, the map likely will be challenged in court.

The original map had all of Mahoning and Trumbull counties in a safe Republican 6th Congressional District with eight other counties to the south.

VALLEY DIVISION

The new congressional map splits the counties into separate districts.

Under the Republican proposal, all of Mahoning would be in the 6th District with the eight other counties from the unconstitutional map — Columbiana, Carroll, Jefferson, Harrison, Belmont, Noble, Monroe and Washington. Instead of Trumbull, this 6th District would include portions of Stark and Tuscarawas counties.

Mahoning is the district’s most-populous county.

The district would favor Republicans 59.06 percent to 40.94 percent for Democrats, according to information provided by the commission.

The only current congressman in this proposed district is U.S. Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Marietta. Marietta is in Washington County, the southernmost county of the district. Johnson, first elected in 2010, is seeking re-election.

The congressional filing deadline is Friday.

Johnson said, “I’m proud to represent the hardworking men and women of eastern and southeastern Ohio, and I look forward to continuing to be their voice in Congress no matter where the final lines are drawn. I’m going to keep working hard every day to honor the trust they’ve placed in me, regardless of their party affiliation or ZIP code.”

A portion of Mahoning County is in the current 6th District, which is the most Republican in the state.

Trumbull would be included in a new 14th District with all of Ashtabula, Lake, Geauga counties and all but two communities in Portage County.

Trumbull would be the district’s second most-populous county behind Lake.

The district would favor Republicans 54.83 percent to 45.17 percent for Democrats, according to information provided by the commission.

Besides Tim Ryan, D-Howland, who isn’t seeking re-election and is instead running for the U.S. Senate, the only current sitting congressman in this proposed district is U.S. Rep. Dave Joyce, R-Bainbridge. Bainbridge is in Geauga County.

Joyce has served as a House member since 2012.

Part of Trumbull County is in the current 14th District, but it is the least-populous county in it.

Dave Kalk, Joyce’s campaign manager, declined to comment Tuesday, saying he wanted to wait until after the maps are “official.”

Joyce filed Monday for re-election, saying, “Representing northeast Ohio in Washington has been the honor of my life. Facing unprecedented levels of inflation, a crisis at our southern border and renewed threats abroad, now more than ever we need leaders in Washington who know how to get results.”

Also filing for the 14th District seat is Democrat Matt Kilboy of Deerfield, a health care consultant and former member of the U.S. Navy Nurse Corps who also worked as a civilian employee for the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Democrat Brenden Kelley, an attorney from Novelty, has been raising money for this race and plans to file by Friday’s deadline.

In response to Russo’s concerns about the map, Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman, R-Lima, who introduced the map Tuesday and is a commission member, pointed to the “compactness” of the 14th District.

“There’s only so many places you can go,” he said of the district. “We did it in five counties. There can’t be much of an argument about the compactness of the 14th.”

MAP BREAKDOWN

The map gives Republicans 10 safe districts and Democrats three.

Two tossups slightly lean Democratic.

Based on voting trends, Democrats have a 0.46 of a percent edge in the proposed 9th District in northwest Ohio, currently represented by Marcy Kaptur, a Toledo Democrat, and a 2.01 percent advantage in the proposed 1st District in southwest Ohio, currently represented by Steve Chabot, a Cincinnati Republican.

The 13th, which includes all of Summit, a portion of Stark and a tiny piece of Portage counties, leans Democratic by 4.3 percent.

The Republican districts are so safe that the most competitive one, the 10th in southwest Ohio, has a 6.64 percent GOP advantage. It currently is represented by Mike Turner, R-Dayton.

The proposed 14th District is the seventh-most competitive and the proposed 6th is the eighth-most competitive.

Russo said the Republican map is unconstitutional as “Republicans are unduly favored and Democrats are unduly unfavored.”

Huffman said the “map is more compact than the (proposed) Senate Democratic map. This is better than the Senate Democratic map.”

Sykes said he hoped Republicans would be open to changes to this map. Huffman said if changes are offered, “I stand ready to hear them.”

House Speaker Bob Cupp, R-Lima, got a legal opinion Tuesday from Attorney General Dave Yost, a fellow Republican, that a simple majority of the seven-member commission — which includes five Republicans — is all that is needed for the map to pass.

Yost also pointed out any map adopted by the commission, regardless of Democratic support, would be good for only four years as the one approved by Republicans in the state Legislature was only good for that long because it failed to get the needed Democratic backing. Actually, the maps received no Democratic votes.