What's the forecast for the future?

WARREN - Someone once said predicting the future would be a lot easier if it were behind us. To which someone else replied that then we wouldn't have so many people to mock.

Some forecasts are easier to make than others. For instance, at this time last year you could have pretty well figured the United States wasn't going out of business in 2009, even with credit crunch clouds gathering into a major financial storm.

The economy may not be on solid footing, but at least it has pulled back to the edge of the cliff instead of running in mid-air like Wile E. Coyote, just before he looks down to the desert floor 1,000 feet below.

At the risk of looking more inept than the Cleveland Browns, here goes with an outlook for 2010:

The early August launch of the Chevrolet Cruze upscale compact car at the General Motors Corp. Lordstown Complex will go noticeably smoother than previous new-model launches at the plant.

One reason is GM has been able to work out any bugs during launches over the last year or so in Europe and Asia, where the car is selling well.

Another is the market is ripe for a small gas-sipping car that offers the feel of a bigger, more expensive vehicle. The Cruze is designed to appeal to those customers.

The biggest reason for optimism is GM workers - everyone from the GM's Renaissance Center in Detroit to Lordstown workers to the auto dealers - know the car has to be the best it can be. The future of the plant and the entire Mahoning Valley literally is riding shotgun in that car. Failure is not an option.

How well the car sells may not be clear until 2011. Lordstown's current car, the Chevrolet Cobalt, didn't hit its 10,000-plus sales stride until the spring selling season got underway in March 2005, five full months after the car's mid-October 2004 launch.

Five full months from August puts sales into January, never a high sales month. Plus, GM has indicated it doesn't want to slap high incentives on the Cruze but instead sell it close to sticker, a strategy that could stretch out the public's acceptance period.

Speaking of consumers, vehicle sales in general will strengthen in 2010, if no other reason than thousands of vehicles will wear out and need to be replaced.

J.D. Power is estimating new-vehicle sales will rise 10.6 percent from 2009 to 11.5 million units. Another estimate puts the gain at 10 percent.

Whatever the gain turns out to be, it'll be a long way from the 17 million area in the mid-2000s.

The real trend will see consumers replace a $30,000 car with a $15,000 new or used vehicle that has fewer gadgets but better gas mileage. Value will be paramount, which will help the Cruze.

Still on the consumer theme, retailers will have to work harder than ever to attract dollars from debt-shocked shoppers, who will need years to recapture the devil-may-care spending habits they exhibited during the 2000s.

Unemployment will drop only stubbornly and actually will be replaced by the underemployed - people working full- and part-time jobs to replace income they used to make from one job, or early retirees who are working to supplement their pension. This will make it even tougher for high school and college graduates to find work in the Mahoning Valley.

People who can afford - or even get credit - to buy a house should be ready to act early in the spring. Not only are the federal tax credits scheduled to end if you don't have a signed purchase agreement by April 30, but the bigger risk is for rising mortgage rates.

A 30-year mortgage rate during Christmas week scooted from 4.875 percent to 5.25 percent at a few local lenders. Some observers are calling for 6 percent or higher if the yield on the base 10-year Treasury bond, which rose from 3.2 percent to 3.85 percent in December, continues to climb.

The Federal Reserve has said it plans to stop buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, removing one major support for low mortgage rates.

The trade deficit with China finally will be addressed more firmly, giving local manufacturers a fighting chance.

The federal government ruled last week to impose tariffs on dumped Chinese steel tubing used in the oil and gas industry. This decision is expected to help convince tubemaker V&M Star Steel to invest nearly $1 billion to expand its Youngstown mill.

Coupled with recent tire and other decisions to level the playing field with foreign producers, we'll start to slowly rebuild our manufacturing base, which has been long neglected.

lringler@tribtoday.com