Twenty-one of 24 area school districts are expecting to be operating in the red within five years, according to district forecasts they filed recently with the Ohio Department of Education.

One district Liberty Local Schools will be $1.12 million in the red by the end of this school year. And by 2014, with no change in its economic circumstances, the district will be operating at more than $21 million in deficit, school officials predict.

Seven local school districts are facing deficit by the 2010-11 school year, and 21 districts by 2014. The only three local districts that can predict no deficit throughout the next five years are Brookfield, Trumbull County Technical Center and Youngstown City Schools. And of those, Youngstown is designated as fiscal emergency and Brookfield is in Fiscal Watch by the state of Ohio.

While some school districts are projecting multi-year, multi-million dollar deficits, state law requires them to balance their budgets at the end of each fiscal year.

Ohio Department of Education spokesman Scott Blake said the annual forecasts are required to give state officials an idea of what is happening in local school districts and to encourage districts officials to begin looking for possible solutions to financial problems before they get out of hand.

''If a school district is looking at a deficit in the fifth year of its forecast, the likelihood is nothing will be done,'' Blake said. ''That is far enough down the line that we believe the school district will address the problem.''

However, a school district expecting to have a deficit in the next one or two years may get an e-mail or a letter seeking information about how it plans to address it. ''We look at the size of the projected deficit,'' Blake said.

Plans could include reducing spending, renewing levies, seeking new levies, negotiating contracts, pay freezes or any number of remedies.

Statewide, about 20 school districts are in fiscal caution, eight in fiscal watch and six in fiscal emergency.

Mathews treasurer Teri Andrika said she already is anticipating a letter from the ODE. And if it comes, the board will be required to submit a plan.

''Last year, we cut supply and equipment purchases,'' Andrika said. ''We also have limited overtime and summer programs."

According to a Tribune Chronicle review of the five-year forecasts, McDonald Local School District was placed in state fiscal emergency last month, but is not showing a deficit until 2011. That's because Treasurer Brian Stidham said the district received a $2,001,000 advance from the state to help balance the books.

As a result, the district is forecasting a $2,910 surplus at the end of this fiscal year. However, it projects deficits of $1.61 million by 2011 and increasing deficits every year thereafter.

The forecast was done after the district learned it would be facing financial difficulties due to bills not being paid and other issues, but before voters supported the passage of a 4.9-mill levy that will infuse $260,000 a year into the budget.

''The levy is not incorporated into our forecast,'' Stidham said. ''This will be a fluid document that likely will be revised several times before the end of the year.''

Stidham said the forecast will be affected by the recommendations and actions taken by the state oversight commission in the district recovery plan.

"The idea of the recovery plan is to bring the district back into balance," Stidham said. "It is to help the district pay down its debts and develop strategies to keep it financially sound."

Lakeview schools are expecting to end the 2011 school year with a budget deficit of $367,374. Unless conditions change, the size of the deficit will increase every year through 2014.

''We've already cut about $1.5 million off our budget in recent years through the elimination of 12 teaching positions, five classified positions and the closing of Cortland Elementary School,'' said treasurer Milt Williams. If voters do not support the next levy attempt, Williams said the district will look at more cuts.

''People have to know if we continue to make cuts, we are going to destroy the school district,'' Williams said. ''That is not what we are here for. We are supposed to provide them the best education available.''

In Howland, the five-year forecast indicates the district could have a deficit in 2011, but treasurer Thomas Krispinsky said the passage of November's renewal levy will now enable it to get through 2012 with budget surplus.

Brookfield is one of the few area schools not predicting a deficit, but even that district shows year-end projected balances shrinking significantly over the five-year period.

Since 2008, the district has worked to slow the rate of financial decline. The district laid off seven people in 2008, and in 2009 it provided retirement incentives for some of its most senior employees.

''Six people accepted the retirement incentives,'' said treasurer David Drawl. They were replaced at lower-paid entry level workers.

In addition, Brookfield officials are hoping that the construction of a new K - 12th grade school will lower maintenance, heating and cooling costs in the district.

rsmith@tribtoday