Trumbull struggles to recover
Staff, wire reportThe economic recovery is proceeding unevenly in its early stages, with areas such as Trumbull County hurt most by the housing slump still lagging behind other regions, according to The Associated Press' monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties.
The September study showed that Trumbull County is the hardest hit of Ohio's counties with more than 100,000 residents and second among all 88 counties, regardless of population. The county's 16.62 index reading was 0.57 points better than in August but was 6.57 points worse than September 2008.
Trumbull, which according to the study has 211,317 residents, had a 13.5 percent unemployment rate, down 0.7 percent from August, but its 2 percent foreclosure rate and 1.63 percent bankruptcy both worsened.
Highland County between Columbus and Cincinnati was worse than Trumbull with a 17.31 stress index, but the county has 42,349 residents.
Among Trumbull's neighbors, Mahoning County had a stress index reading of 14.72; Columbiana County stood at 15.24; Portage County was 12.07 and Ashtabula was 15.40.
The AP's Economic Stress Index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on a county's unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11.
Nationwide, the average county's Stress score dipped to 10.1 in September from 10.3 in August, helped by a steadying of foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. In September 2008, the average county Stress score was much lower: 6.73.
The highest Stress scores were still found mainly in states that endured housing booms and busts. Nevada had the highest score, 21.95, followed by Michigan, with its battered auto industry, at 17.75. California was next, at 16.2, followed by Florida, 15.4, and Arizona, 14.26.
States with the lowest Stress scores in September were North Dakota (4.07), South Dakota (5.01), Nebraska (5.71), Montana (6.6) and Wyoming (6.9).
''Housing still is at the epicenter of this crisis around the country, and places where the cycle was most egregious are also now places that are seeing some of the highest rates of unemployment,'' said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida.
Counties in the Southeast, the industrial Midwest and the Southwest are still struggling and have made the least improvement, the analysis of September data found. The northern half of the nation is stabilizing or improving faster than the southern half. Northern counties generally didn't suffer as much from the housing bust.
Areas of the Northeast, such as Pennsylvania and upstate New York, are benefiting from economically stable industries like higher education and health care. Those are the two industries that have added jobs during the recession.
Pittsburgh, for example, is no longer an old-line industrial city. The city's largest employers are the University of Pittsburgh's Health Center and the West Penn Allegheny Health System, a network of hospitals, noted Steve Cochrane, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.
That's in contrast to much of neighboring Ohio, which still has auto-related manufacturing that has been hit hard by the downturn, Cochrane said. In September, Ohio suffered from a Stress score of 12.48, while Pennsylvania's was only 9.49.
The government said last week that the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, ending four straight quarters of decline. But that growth is expected to slow as government stimulus programs wind down.
Midwestern and Plains states such as Oklahoma, Nebraska, North Dakota and Iowa avoided the worst of the housing and financial crises. And Oklahoma and North Dakota have recently benefited from rising oil prices. The region also has been helped by a weaker dollar, which has made agricultural commodities cheaper for foreigners to buy.
About 36 percent of counties in September had a score of 11 or higher, down from 39 percent of counties in August. Twenty-nine states saw some improvement in their Stress scores from August to September.
Since the start of 2009, 12 states have improved their Stress scores: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Vermont.
The contrast between stabilizing regions and worsening ones can be seen in the economies of Arkansas and Florida. Arkansas didn't bear the brunt of the recession until the financial markets collapsed last fall. Its unemployment rate rose from 5.2 percent in September 2008 to 7.1 percent last month. And its Stress score rose from 6.48 to 8.84 in the past year.
But its economy has begun showing signs of life. Arkansas' economy has been stable since March, with some job gains in September. Job creation is expected in the first quarter of next year.
''I think Arkansas will emerge stronger than our neighbors and a little bit ahead of the curve,'' said Michael Pakko, chief economist at the Institute for Economic Advancement at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.
Arkansas also is home to several industries that fared well during the recession. Wal-Mart and its suppliers anchor the northwest part of the state. Food processing plants in the northeast part of the state are humming, and health service jobs in Little Rock have increased.
Florida, by contrast, was severely hurt by the housing bust. Its unemployment rate started climbing months before the official start of the recession in December 2007, from 4 percent in June 2007 to 11 percent in September. Its jobless rate is expected to remain above 10 percent into 2012.
''I'm expecting Florida to lag the nation as a whole in the recovery,'' Snaith said. ''A lot of that is just trying to get out from under the burden of the housing market.''
Three of the five-most-stressed counties with populations over 25,000 were in Nevada, also battered by the housing crisis. The five are: Imperial County, Calif. (33.51); Yuma County, Ariz. (25.82); Lyon County, Nev. (24.72); Clark County, Nev. (23.83); and Nye County, Nev. (23.72).
''There is going to be a longer process for those economies to get back into the swing of things,'' Pakko said.
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Pitten
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11-03-09 3:51 PM
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AFRET1- I would love to see what is in those 1900 pages. I am sure they wont release it to the American people until it is passed.
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AFRET1
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11-03-09 3:37 PM
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taxpayer...Obama has done more in 10 months to put us on the road to bankruptcy than Bush did in 8 years. And virtually every day he wants to spend more. As for Obamacare, like a lot of people are saying, if the Administration can't manage the Cash for Clunkers program or H1N1 distribution, God help us if Congress passes whatever bill they end up with (now at 1900 pages). Finally, which party has always dominated in the Valley? What have they done for us?
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Pitten
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11-03-09 3:30 PM
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This area has been Dem for a long time and will continue to be Dem and stay in the economic depressed state until the people make the Dem leaders under stand that we wont blindly vote for them. but that will never happen here. we will continue to vote Dem and blame others
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EarlyRiser
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11-03-09 12:32 PM
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Hey taxpayer, its the dems controlling this area thats responsible for no jobs. Bush/Chaney had nothing to do with our the Govenor and other elected Dems making this area taxing bussiness to death.
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jmill46
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11-03-09 11:11 AM
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When the ACTUAL GDP is adjusted for all that is happening with the economy, hold on to your B***. It's not as rosey as it seems.
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DrSpankit
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11-03-09 11:05 AM
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fltruckplantman;If all you could make in 2000 was 5.35Hr, 'you are not very talented even with your allged degree.'
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fltrplntman
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11-03-09 10:07 AM
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<<I feel for those people still trying to make in Trumbull County. You may love your ship, but if it is sinking, you need to find a lifeboat.>> Or a Mutiny.. Its not as easy as you think just to pack up and run. Try selling a house here and breaking even. After 6 years in my house, I can't sell it for what its worth. (Just a small $70,000 house) And you can'T just go buy another house without a job. What we need is a few good people to stay here and fix the ship instead of running away from the problems.
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FormerNEOhioan
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11-03-09 9:53 AM
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Grump is a grump, but he has it right on this one. I graduated magna****laude from Hiram College in 2000 and the best I could do was Video Update at $5.35. Virtually everyone I knew had to move at least to Pittsburgh to make a decent living. Some of us had to go much farther (Atlanta). As back as I can remember, the Packard/GM jobs were "in trouble." Why couldn't more people invest in their own education and retraining, especially when GM would pay for it? My mother make more than $60g a year as a janitor when she retired in the late 90s. That is frankly absurd. I feel for those people still trying to make in Trumbull County. You may love your ship, but if it is sinking, you need to find a lifeboat.
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fltrplntman
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11-03-09 9:53 AM
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We cannot recover if we don't have well paying jobs. And NO ONE in Trumbull county is doing ANYTHING about that. All that fuss about V&M in Youngstown.. could have been at the Old Copperweld facility. Nope asleep at the wheel. Heck.. It took a year before any politician made any statement about Severstal.. And it was from a different area. The mayor and county officials, never said a bloody word. And Severstal is in DOWNTOWN Warren. (Think income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, city utilities..) Nope bending over backwards to kiss GM buttocks... for a little bit in tax money. Can't see the forest because of the big shut down tree (WCI/Severstal) in the way.
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AnotherOvertaxedResident
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11-03-09 9:49 AM
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taxpayer; there's enough blame to go around for both sides. When the poop hit the fan( i.e. the bail outs), who controlled both houses of congress? How come states like Texas were prospering when we were loosing jobs? That's a state and local problem and that means both parties failed us.
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ProudAmerican
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11-03-09 9:23 AM
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Taxpayer: Although it would be easy to blame 8 years of a Republican dominated governing structure, I think you should do some fact checking first. During the 8, yes 8, years under Clinton the economy soared because of blue chip technology companies making an impact on the market. Toward the end of his term the bubble was close to bursting and yet he did not thing to guard against a boom-bust economy. Bush inherited a spiraling market, which was going through a self correction to re-stabilize itself after collapsing. We had a build up to war which allowed for economic stimulus, as war time economies do. Then when the war leveled out, the economy down-turned. Now, I'm not saying all that the previous Admin. did was correct, but it did add jobs in certain sectors, and did create some stimulus in others, while preventing inflation. Also, unions have artificially inflated the value of a non-skill based job, which is part of the reason the economy is in the condition it's in.
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speedy50
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11-03-09 8:46 AM
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My fear is that our score will improve, but only after more houses are demolished, leaving fewer to foreclose and many people follow the jobs and leave the area.
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taxpayer
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11-03-09 8:24 AM
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Eight years of Bush, Cheney, Rove and a total Republican domination has done more damage to the mahoning valley (all but ruined the world economy) than anyone. Good union jobs made this valley. The difference between a good job and a sweat shop is a union. If you ever worked in a sweat shop you would know.
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OldManGrump2
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11-03-09 6:03 AM
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As long as Trumbull County and the Mahoning Valley maintain their Union Mentality, there will never be any new jobs that pay good wages & benefits here in this area. The Unions & local democrooks have ruined the local economy because it will never grow beyond what it is. The best thing a young person here can do is graduate high school & college, and move away from the Mahoning Valley for the good jobs out of state.
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fran125
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11-03-09 12:51 AM
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I really hate to hear that Trumbull County is still lagging behind other regions, in the monthly analysis of economic stress. I still see it, people losing their houses, foreclosure still very much apart of of our economy. Here is a funny graphic that says it all. ***********typobounty****/Funny/Foreclosure.htm
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