WARREN - A prominent financial magazine is listing the Mahoning Valley among the nation's 10 areas least poised to climb out of the recession, but local economic development officials would love to prove it wrong.
''We'll try to fool them. We keep putting our best foot forward and keep on working to expand existing businesses and get new businesses,'' Trumbull County Planning Commission Bill Miller said Wednesday in reaction to Forbes.com's report released the same day.
Miller said the commission is working with six potential industrial businesses about locating in or near Trumbull County. A couple could produce 50 to 100 jobs, while others might be in the 10- to 12-job range, he said.
''A couple of them are looking pretty good,'' he said, but wouldn't identify them due to confidentiality. ''At least one of the others may not be in Trumbull County but will be in the region if they can pull off their expansion.''
Forbes.com used data from Moody's Economy.com in compiling its list of the best and worst positioned metropolitan statistical areas to recover from the recession.
The analysis projected the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area's gross domestic product would fall from $16.3 billion at the start of the recession to $15.4 billion at the end of 2010, a 6 percent decline.
The story, which erroneously put the area in western Ohio, said Moody's estimates the area's GDP won't recover its pre-recession level until early 2013 due to a long-shrinking manufacturing base that has been hit hard by the recession.
While acknowledging the area's economic trouble - its metropolitan jobless rate of 12.8 percent in April was the worst in the state - a Regional Chamber official echoed Miller's belief the Valley could surprise the experts, helped by a mix of manufacturing and technology, along with young political leaders.
Regional Chamber Vice President of Government Affairs Tony Paglia noted the area has more business projects - distribution, manufacturing and other companies - in the pipeline than in the last 10 to 15 years.
He pointed to a $350 million expansion at the General Motors Corp. Lordstown Complex to prepare the factories to build the brand-new Chevrolet Cruze upscale small car starting in April.
''When (General Motors Corp.) comes out of bankruptcy, Lordstown will be a center of production for them,'' he said.
Paglia noted Lordstown built more cars than any GM plant in the nation last year and is the company's largest U.S. assembly operation.
The area also is moving into the high-tech world with the success of the Youngstown Business Incubator and its prominent tenant, Turning Technologies, Paglia said.
In addition, the Valley has a group of ''dynamic young political leaders that we didn't have'' in prior recessions, he said, referring to U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Niles, state Senate Minority Leader Capri Cafaro and Youngstown Mayor Jay Williams.
''That's already paying dividends,'' he said. ''I can't guarantee anything, but at least we have some things going for us this time.''
Other metro areas projected to have a hard time recovering economically include auto-heavy Flint, Mich., and Detroit, along with California areas of Los Angeles-Long Beach, Fresno, Bakersfield and Modesto due to the housing market crash. The New York-New Jersey area also made the negative list due to the financial sector meltdown.
Texas cities Austin, San Antonio and Dallas were among those best positioned to recover with the help of education and health care industries, the study showed.