School districts across the valley are finding themselves struggling to stop their fiscal bleeding, as five-year forecasts released last month reflect significant losses.
According to the forecasts required by the Ohio Department of Education, 16 of 21 Trumbull school districts predict they will be operating in deficit by 2013, with Warren City Schools predicting the largest shortfall at more than $28 million by 2013 and Niles City Schools predicting a shortfall of $12.7 million by 2013. Liberty Local Schools is predicting a $11.3 million shortfall by then.
In fact, Niles School District, along with Lakeview in the Bazetta-Cortland area, are projecting that they will be operating at financial losses by the end of the 2010 school year, based on their current financial picture.
Four other districts - Austintown, Howland, Newton Falls and Southington - say they are facing similar situations in 2012. Mathews and Weathersfield school districts are forecasting possible losses starting in 2012.
Seven other nearby school districts - LaBrae, Jackson-Milton, Girard, Bristol, Bloomfield-Mespo, Lordstown and Maplewood - are not projecting possible deficits until the 2013 school years.
Meanwhile, Champion, McDonald, Hubbard and Brookfield schools each expect to get through the 2013 school year without any deficit.
Liberty's five-year forecast indicates it will have a projected budget of $443,356 at this fiscal year. However, the district is projected to have a June 30, 2010, end-of-year balance of $1.4 million budget. By the end of the June 30, 2013, the district is projected to have a negative balance of more than $11 million.
The district failed to convince voters to pass a 9.9-mill levy in May that would have eliminated the projected debt, but school officials say they will wait before trying again at a levy.
''We are not going to put on another levy attempt in August, so the earliest we could put it on the ballot is in November,'' Superintendent Mark Lucas said.
Lakeview's five-year forecast projects it will end this year with an operating balance of just $23,400. And in each of the next four years, the district estimates it will have negative balances each June 30.
Lakeview Superintendent Robert Wilson said the district has been actively looking at ways to trim its budget while maintaining quality programs.
''We cut $1 million from our budget in the last two years, reduced our teaching staff by 12 positions and there is no busing at the high school level,'' Wilson said. ''We are one of a few districts that have pay to participate.''
That district is hoping to save $500,000 next year by the closing of Cortland Elementary school, he said. "Many of our fourth grade students will being going into modular units next year.
"We've reduced our staff by 12 teachers, did not replace our curriculum director and reduced busing by eliminating busing to the high school,'' he continued.
Now Lakeview is talking with Mathews School District about collaborating various activities.
''We are still in the discussion phase,'' Wilson said. ''I'm sure we will be able to do something.''
Because schools cannot end the year with deficits, district officials must look for ways to reduce their projected losses.
Voters in Cortland and Bazetta in February approved a 3.15-mill renewal levy, which saves about $840,000 a year.
Warren schools is projected to have a $10 million deficit in 2012 and more than a $28 million deficit by the end of the 2013 school year, unless financial conditions change.
LaBrae Superintendent Pat Guliano says the district will have a wage freeze and has five senior employees retiring this year. District officials do not expect to replace all of those positions.
According to its forecast, the district will not face a possible deficit until 2013.
It also has an incentive program for qualifying employees that may be thinking of retiring.
''We are trying to slow the rate of losses,'' Guliano said. ''Realistically, it will be very, very difficult for anyone to pass local revenue levy. Yet, school districts have costs that they cannot eliminate''
Bristol Superintendent Marty Santillo says it has always been difficult for school districts to project their budget five years out as they are required to do by May 30 every year. It was especially difficult this year because of the uncertainty of the funding methods being discussed by state legislators.
''Generally, we are pretty good looking two years down the road, because that's how the state figures its budget," Santillo said. "When you get to years three, four and five, it is a lot more difficult."
Bristol is among the seven not projecting the possibility of a deficit until 2013. Still, by then, it is projecting a shortfall of $157,411.
Earlier this year, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland announced a plan to overhaul the state's funding mechanism for its schools. However, since that time, state officials have found its overall budget is in worse financial shape than anyone expected.
While the Ohio House generally has been supportive of the governor's education plans, the Senate has been looking at ways to cut spending in order to balance Ohio's overall budget.
"We probably will not know how to plan our budgets until sometime in July,'' Santillo said.
Budget projections are based on current funding formulas.
Bristol is expecting to have more expenditures than revenues it takes in beginning at the end of the 2010 school year. However, its cash balances will prevent the district from falling into the red.
Santillo said the district is asking voters to support a 4.7-mill levy renewal in August.
William Daugherty, treasurer of the Bloomfield-Mespo School District, says in spite of the fact the district is not facing a possible financial problem until 2013, school leaders have been active in trying to keep costs down.
"We have done some RIFs (reduction in forces) and have been looking at other ways to reduce out costs,'' Daugherty said. "We are watching what will happen with the governor's proposals. We are very optimistic about them"
Hubbard treasurer Rhonda Baldwin says the community has been very supportive of the district and has financially supported it whenever there has been a need for levy renewals. The school district is not projecting a deficit in its five-year forecast.
"Right now, we're in pretty good shape," Baldwin said.
Even with schools that are not projecting a financial deficit, the five-year forecast still shows everything is not perfect. At the end of this school year, Hubbard schools, for example, will be having more expenditures than revenues.
The school district is expecting to spend $315,607 more this year than it is earning in revenues. However it will end the year on June 30 with a unreserved fund balance of $6.4 million.
By 2013, the district will have expenditures of nearly $3.7 million greater than revenues it is earning for the year. The district still projects a June 30, 2013, fund balance of nearly $3.3 million.
"We, like many others, are seeing a significant drop in our investment earnings," Baldwin said. "In future years, we will see an elimination of money from the tangible personal property tax and a decrease in the valuation of properties in the area.
"Simultaneously, we will see our expenses rises, including salary increases that we are contractually obligated to pay, a rise in health care costs, and purchasing of new equipment."